PMs in perspective

Silver is currently at 31.60.  I've loaded up on more Silver positions and closed out my Oil positions.

To put things into perspective, let's have a look at the Silver weekly chart.

From Dec 08 to May 09, Silver has been below the 50 week MA (Moving Average).  Ever since that time it has always been above the 50 week MA.  That represents a more than 2 year run above that level!  Now that Silver is back below this level it will probably run higher when it gets above this level.  Make no mistake, this is a great buying opportunity.


Let's look at Gold.

Gold's graph looks incredible.  It hasn't had a pause since Feb 09!  Again the blue line represents the 50 week MA.

The trend is still up and both represent great buying opportunities.  Although I have to say, Silver represents a better opportunity.

PM Carnage!

The precious metals have taken a smashing so right now my portfolio doesn't look healthy.  It has fallen 50% off its peak just a week ago since I'm very levered towards Silver.  Silver has fallen 25% since Wednesday and Friday's 17% decline represents the biggest one day fall since 1984.  We're not living in normal times.  I have since closed out some SLW Jan positions and moved towards longer term Silver positions.  With SLW that's going to take significant time before the chart is repaired and right now that's not going to happen so I will probably close out the remaining SLW positions sometime next week and move those towards July Future Calls, which look really cheap now.  Because technical analysis is worthless when it comes to manipulation, what you want to buy when chasing options is time.

My Silver target is still $60 (or higher) by June 2012.  The bet of my life.  Buckle up Dorothy for the ride of your life.

Gold.ax the breakout is on

Gold.ax (a proxy for Gold in Australian dollars) has finally broken out of its several year consolidation phase (3 years!!).  Another record in another fiat currency.

From this point onwards till next year, expect Gold to rally strongly.  This period is traditionally gold's strongest.  My target is still around the 1870 level.  That represents another 200+ rise.

To the "smart crowd" who chose the "strong"Australian dollar, you've just lost even more of your purchasing power.  Amazing how people only chose to buy gold now when it's risen so much when they could've gotten it much cheaper even just earlier this year.

September 11 10 years on...

Today's the 10 year anniversary of September 11.  10 years on what has changed?  Loss of freedom, more wars ("democracy"), more deaths in the name of "freedom".  And the US is fast going down a slippery slope into bankruptcy oblivion spending money it doesn't have while China grows its US reserves now in the trillions.  In the current debasing competition, the most notable safe haven currency, the Swiss Franc devalued 8.5% in a week against the golden bull.  That is a crash.


Model portfolio value


SLW Jan12 30 Call @ 8.67, 6 contracts - Currently $11.25 (29.7% Gain)
CLM2 140 C @ 0.96, 5 contracts - Currently $1 (4.1% Gain)

Current Model Portfolio Value $11,750



I'm still targeting oil at $100 by years' end.  If not, close to $100.  SLW still targeting $60 early next year.

Introducting the model portfolio!

The idea.. turn $1 into $2 or more!

Let's create a model portfolio of $10,000.  Our target profit level is 100%.  So by the end of this year, we want the portfolio to be valued at $20,000 or higher.  At least that is the idea.  Can I do it?  Why not?

This portfolio will be modelled based on my own portfolio.  I hold other stocks but I'm just going to stick with the two most recent ones that I've picked along with the price I bought them.  I purchased these because I believe these are represent low risk and high reward.  Prices exclude trading fees.

SLW Jan12 30 Call (Stock Option) - Average at $8.67
Buy 6 contracts - Total $5202
Rationale 
Silver wheaton is a great stock and underperforming silver right now.  They purchase silver from mining companies for $4 and sell it at spot price.  It's a great business model.  The rationale for buying an in the money call is less risk that the contract will expire out of the money.  I believe Silver will hit new highs by the end of this year and this should put a boost under SLW to above $50 by years' end.  If that happens, each contract will be worth $20 or more.

CLM2 140 C (Futures Option) - Average at $0.96
Buy 5 contracts - Total $4798
Rationale
Oil has collapsed back to Dec 2010 levels.  Meanwhile the dollar is getting devalued faster than waste coming out of a person suffering from severe diarrhoea.  This is not sustainable.  I believe oil will rise back to within $100 by end of this year.  The rationale for buying a longer out of the money contract is so that there is enough time for this play to work out.

Currently the above positions are

SLW Jan12 30 Call - Currently $12 (38% Gain)
CLM2 140 C - Currently $0.97 (1.36% Gain)


Current Model Portfolio Value $12,050


Will update as and when we move along!

Graphs of metals versus other paper currencies

1 year graph of CHF (Swiss Franc), SGD (Singapore Dollar), NOK (Norwegian Krone), AUD (Australian Dollar), GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver) against the USD (US Dollar).

The top performers are

1. Silver (134%)
2. Gold (51%)
3. Swiss Franc (33%)
4. Australian Dollar (16%)
5. Norwegian Krone (13%)
6. Singapore Dollar (12%)

5 year graph of CHF (Swiss Franc), SGD (Singapore Dollar), NOK (Norwegian Krone), AUD (Australian Dollar), GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver) against the USD (US Dollar).

The top performers are

1. Silver (245%)
2. Gold (194%)
3. Swiss Franc (56%)
4. Australian Dollar (36%)
5. Singapore Dollar (30%)
6. Norwegian Krone (15%)

8 year graph of CHF (Swiss Franc), SGD (Singapore Dollar), NOK (Norwegian Krone), AUD (Australian Dollar), GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver) against the USD (US Dollar).

The top performers are

1. Gold (301%)
2. Silver (201%)
3. Swiss Franc (75%)
4. Australian Dollar (57%)
5. Singapore Dollar (40%)
6. Norwegian Krone (34%)

Conclusion?  Your best bet is still Gold and Silver against paper currencies, saying their performance is astounding is plain for all to see.  Paper currencies will continue their long term devaluation.  Interest gained in a paper account will not be enough to account for the decline of purchasing power.

One Early August Morning

Another night another day! This afternoon I watched Enter The Dragon with Bruce Lee and later a documentary on his life and family. It's inspirational to read his struggles as an actor and as a martial arts artist. His marriage to a Caucasian woman was also at that point in time a very taboo thing. Today it is less taboo, depending on which part of the world you go to anyway. It's unfortunate he died so young, but his legacy will live on that is certain.

Now on to metals...

It's mid August and gold and silver. Gold is currently $1742.60 and silver is currently $39.27. Silver will hit $50 by years' end and Gold, $2000. I believe we are right now in the beginning stages of mania in Gold and Silver. Oil has collapsed back to $83.50. My guess is by the end of the year oil will be back and above $100. I've placed bets on oil and on silver wheaton, a silver streaming company. I expect silver wheaton to reach new highs by the end of this year. It is currently $37 and I expect it to hit $60 by January 2012 possibly higher. Now's the time to get into the mining shares, I fully expect those to take off by the end of this year. The Fed will unleash more QE, whatever they call it, it's going to happen.

I have placed large bets on oil and silver, so we'll see how that goes. Lady luck has been on my side this year. I've not placed any bets on gold but that is because I believe silver has greater potential along with oil. This summer has been stunning for gold and silver, the strongest in almost 30 years. That speaks volumes about the economic uncertainly that is currently present in the world today.  People are rushing to real money.

What I expect by June next year
- Silver at $60
- Oil at $150
- Gold at $2500

Most likely, these values are underestimated because the mania will slowly start to realise itself over the next months.

Something bigger than myself

So I'm back at work. Portfolio is still up from January, I'm currently down 16K from last month. Stocks and commodities are being hammered and I'm quite leveraged with options, so I'm taking a small beating. Mr Williams said from now till summer Gold and Silver will go nowhere, from the beginning of September till December they will rally 20 to 25 percent. I'm going to hold my silver options and probably keep adding.

On to things larger than myself. I feel like I'm looking through a goldfish bowl some times, many times. The person I love has gone back to Australia. I'm all alone. I feel so angry and helpless but I have to keep trying to be strong because I have nobody to fall back on. Nobody really understands. Don't even know if anyone even cares. :(

All the idiots and liars always get the good deals because they know how to manipulate people. I'm sorry that I can't manipulate people. I just want to help people, want people to know the truth, for them to look after themselves, but maybe the way I talk about things is a bit harsh and I don't know any other way. People are just so stupid! How is this possible? The world's being taken over by bastard bankers and fucking governments! People should be revolting on the streets! Not even in the countries that are affected right now but every country should be revolting! But people because think they work harder they'll have a better life, in some aspects that is true but when you're using paper currency backed by the same liars controlling the world and constantly devaluing your earnings, what's the point? Most of the western world have everything. Having material things does not mean having a better life, unfortunately that is what is being purported. You chase money, debt, and you become a slave to the system, to the elite.

Even though I love trading, I know what's real and having numbers in my account means jack shit to me. My shoes have holes but I still wear them because they still work.

If I had one wish it would be to not desire for anything material because all that shit just ends up owning me.

I just wish for the one I love. That is all I really care about.

Holidays interlude

So I'm on holidays right now going through Italy, Germany, Czech Republic and Norway. Thought I would do an update while Lauren is asleep. Portfolio is back up more than 100K but with Silver getting smashed it's down 60K or so. Good thing I sold right at the top so I've locked in a huge gain. Too many bulls. Silver's now fallen an incredible 20%. I'll probably move in when I see signs of a technical bottom. I'm really happy I took profits otherwise I would've been down even more and the options I've sold have fallen 75% and 60% so I can re-enter much cheaply. Probably no one will ever read this blog other than me and that's perfectly fine. This year has been very kind to me so far and let's hope it continues that way. I'm now valued at half a million Singapore dollars at least. To my dad and uncle who told me to sell my soul to the bank and get a house, I say to them.. well now I do not need to sell my soul to the bank and I can afford to buy a house in full even at these ridiculous prices. When the collapse in housing comes I'll be able to afford several in cash.

Japan Tsunami

So a great tsunami has hit Japan and it seems like the nuclear rods are not under control.  That's going to bloody awful for Japan and the rest of the world.  If you're living in the west coast of the US you must get some iodine tablets, now.  Better to prepare for the worst then regret later.

Silver is battling resistance at $36.  Rumour posted here

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/questions-continue.html

talks about how JPM's losses are exponential once silver hits over $36.  Oil is currently around $100 and change.

My portfolio's currently down more than 100K.  We'll see how it comes along in the next month or so.  I've learnt to relax and not trade in and out, so 100K?  No biggie. ;)

Silver silver silver

I'm mad about silver nowadays.  This bull market is going absolutely berserk.  A high of $36.60, Silver spot is currently trading at $35.99.  Silver has been slowly griding against oil for the past 2 years.  The Silver to Oil ratio is currently 1:3.  I expect this to fall to 1:2 and based on the graph it looks like a double top breakout will happen very soon.

I expect oil to hit $200 within the next few months.  At that point Silver might trade at $100.

Hi ho Silver!

This year is turning out to be so far, life changing in so many ways!

The greatest bull market in our lifetimes!

I'm just super excited, Gold just made a new high in USD terms and Silver is at a 31 year high.  My head is spinning and I'm getting light headed.  Damn I'm excited.  Better not say anything to jinx myself but I think it's written in the stars that my time has definitely come!

Hi Ho Silver!!

Damn, silver has hit a new 30 year high of $34!  Silver rose close to 5% just today alone and up close to 25% in the past month!  Oil was up 6% alone just today.  Silver has been on an absolute tear these last couple of days.  Skeptics were expecting silver to fall but of course, the graphs don't listen.  It now appears that silver will be making a run to new highs very soon.  I think $50 by year end is a real possibility, probably before.  I'm just glad to be part of the ride.  Silver and Gold, a definite buy.  If Silver should fall to $25 I'm ready to go all in.  Of course that might never happen, I believe we're coming close to the mania stage and in the mania stage you will make more money than all the previous years combined.  These are days where your life can be changed forever, you must take your chances and I believe this is one of the greatest bull markets, ever.  With the insanity going on in governments it's not a question of how high gold and silver can go, but how low can the dollar go?  Thanks Ben Bernanke for causing all the inflation around the world, you're the one causing violence erupting in the middle east, oil and food going straight up.  Anyone can see this is all planned, the people in power are not stupid, people should seek the truth for themselves and not believe the mainstream media.  Everyone or anyone reading this should buy some gold and silver immediately.  You are insane not to.  Insane!

Gold.ax has reached its lows

Okay I am convinced the low of gold is in, at least in terms of Australian dollars.  On Feb 2nd Gold hit a low of 128.50, there is strong support stretching from July 2010 at 126.99.  I don't believe Gold will go lower than this support.  In fact I just bought more Gold at this level.  A false breakout occurred on November 25th but this only serves as a platform for a higher target count when Gold eventually resumes its uptrend.  The current target is an incredible $207 which represents a 58% increase at today's price!

2010 End of Year Review

1st Jan 2011!  Another year gone by.  The bear market rally continues aided by worldwide printing of money aka QE.  Financially this year has been the best year for me, ever.  I'm quite surprised, my business really fell badly towards the end but my trading activities have done very well.  I've positioned myself very well to take advantage of the economic chaos that's about to unfold this year, so with any luck by the middle of this year I would be a thousand thousandaire.

Positives
- I still sold software
- I didn't lose my shorts in trading
- My savings rate is still unbeatable
- US didn't go into collapse
- Financials wise, I'm still way above the crowd
- Best year ever financially.  And I didn't have a job for 2 months since I resigned in September.
- Moved to Norway

Negatives
- Sales getting down, some bastard from China ripped off my software including the user interface.  I am really unhappy about that. :(
- Economy fundamentals are worse than ever
- USD will collapse this year, Euro, Japanese Yen?
- Moved to Norway
- When will I start writing iphone apps?  Grrr...

I put down moving to Norway as a positive and negative because I get to learn new things but my social life is going downhill!

What's in store for 2011...

More applications
Must start writing applications for the iphone, procrastination is killing me.
I also need to start writing a specialised targeted blog... must work on my inbound marketing.

Investing
What do I expect this year? Armageddon, honestly this year will be the year of financial turmoil but if you're positioned then you will do extremely well.  I'm betting the USD will fail this year.  Other paper currencies like the Euro and Japanese yen will probably fail as well.  When that happens there will be a mad mad MAD scramble to gold and all physical assets.  People will be astounded by how high Gold will go to.  My target is at least 10K Gold and 600+ Silver.  There will be corrections along the way but they won't last.  This is THE YEAR for Gold and Silver and all hard assets.  Stocks?  Forget about it.  I think people will start to be awake once Gold hits 2K and then the mania will start.

Bring on 2011!

Gold update

Gold.ax has had a false breakout.  It's now close to support.  Short term resistance at 141, support at 131.

I still recommend gold as a strong buy.  This consolidation only means a larger breakout when gold does indeed take out the 141 level.

Looking at a 10 year graph of gold, gold starts with about a 2 year consolidation phase before breaking out to new highs, from 2006 to 2007 this was what happened, then a breakout in 2008, consolidation again then another breakout and now we're in another 2 year consolidation phase.  I still expect Gold to expect 149 level sometime this New Year, my initial target is at least 1870.

Gold, strong buy!!