Goodbye to the lows

It looks like the low in Gold and Silver has gone and is now history.  I've sold my Silver 40 March calls since it's running out of time and closed out the Silver 60 call as well and moved to an additional 40 Dec 2013 call since that will be more profitable.

Check out these updated graphs.

Important low at 1600

Important low at 27.50

Gold will definitely head over 2000 next year.  It's primed for a move after consolidating for well over a year now, in fact the longer the consolidation the more explosive the move.  Because of this I'm going to purchase Gold calls for Dec 13 at 2000 with the current Gold Dec 2013 price at 1726.  This option is unbelievably cheap right now, just in September it was over $11000 per contract and now it's fallen to $5000 with over a year to go.  I expect Gold to hit 2500 before July 2013 before I even consider selling, and that would put Silver at least 48 going by the current Gold to Silver ratio.  Also I've already purchased June 13 2000 Calls as well, in anticipation of this move!

Now what?

Silver and gold have been absolutely rocking.  A near $2 move for silver in less than a week and a close to $50 move for gold in the same time period.

Silver up 2.97% over 24 hours.

Gold up 2% over 24 hours.

So now what?  Well looking at Silver on a weekly chart, the MACD has only just turned up and it's not even overbought.  So right now I'm just holding.  I know, many people are saying to sell right now, and that is apparent on a short term graph, but these things have a mind of its own.  Sure my portfolio is up over 100% just over a month ago with plenty of time to spare, but I'm not taking profits yet when it's evident the money printing by the ECB has just started.  You can see both Silver and Gold have overcome the 200 day resistance.  Maybe it's time for a break?  Or shall we sprint on and leave the non-believers behind?

Silver weekly

Gold weekly

Will gold and silver hit new highs before end of the year?  Gold possibly, but Silver that's hard to guess.

Anyway I sure am thankful for the precious metals being up after being smashed for so long.  But that's how bull markets work, climbing the wall of worry.

Here we go again

It's now September, and yesterday gold and silver had substantial moves.

Silver up 1.30 to 31.84, up 4.27%



Gold up 36.30 to 1691.60, up 2.19%

As for me I'm up 38K Australian dollars since last month.  My entire net worth is now 72% concentrated into just the metals alone, the highest percentage it has ever been.  If you take into account options, this percentage is even higher.  As gold and silver explode my net worth explodes even higher.  Some day gold and silver will be overvalued in terms of houses, stocks, and other physical assets, but not yet.  And when that day arrives, it will be time to sell.  But here's the thing, gold and silver are real assets, real money that no one can steal from you, and they will never ever go to zero.  Paper will and has always historically gone to zero.  I'm on the side of history, which side are you on?  Last night I spoke with an Italian, unfortunately from my impression or what I know, she is broke and her family has no money at all, they just have enough money for food.  Honestly I fear for her and her future, she doesn't even know what to do and right now things haven't blown up yet in Europe.  I've told her to buy silver and gold because that's the only thing that's going to protect anyone when the euro blows up, which it will, but it's not time yet.  The only issue is she has absolutely nothing, so that's going to be hard when it blows over.  It's going to be hard on a lot of people.

Is this the beginning of the big move?

SLV currently USD 28.37, up USD 1.10 since my last post.
Gold.ax currently AUD 149.81, just up over AUD 2 since my last post.

You know I'm really not sure.  It could be.  Perhaps in times like these when my emotions are confused it's the best time to buy.  I've been haemorrhaging cash since last September, so almost a year now, because of Silver.  Not fun to lose cash but what can I say, these are times when you have to take your chance because absolute fortunes are made.  I believe I'll still be a thousand thousandaire at some point within the year.  Things move quickly in this market.  It's nice to be up once in a while and today is that day.  My strategy over the past year was to put pretty much every cent I've earned into Silver and so it has been the case for this year as well.  I literally mean every cent.  I believe in myself, even though at times I may be losing money like runny diarrhoea but I believe in the end it will be worth it.  Perhaps one day I'll look back upon this post and go, was this guy mad?  or perhaps I would go gosh that's just bloody genius.  Or perhaps both.  It's kind of funny I probably have lost more money than I had ever spent!!  But honestly, I believe in myself, and I believe this is the time.

Silver is now solidly above it's 50 day MA.  Next stop 200 day MA at 30.56.  When the moving averages confirm then we can say the bull market is on, however I suspect by the time that happens silver would already be well above 30 and close to 40.

One thing's for sure, expect volatility to return.

Major low in Gold and Silver

Gold.ax, the proxy for gold in Australian dollars, is now at a major low.  The last time I made this post in 2009, Gold.ax was at another major low!  Now is the time to buy.  Heck I can't say it enough, now is the time to buy, we're at a major low, major major low.

Let's look at Silver.  Also at a major low.  This is the graph of Slv, the proxy for Silver.

Of course I've been saying to buy gold and silver for years, so nothing new there, but I think it's a great opportunity right now to get in for anyone who hasn't purchased anything yet.

ASX200

Looks like a crash is coming in the ASX 200, in fact it may have already started or will start really soon.

Also so many newsletters have been saying gold and silver are on the verge of a move upwards, but I think that's just hogwash.  The charts for gold and silver look terrible, silver especially, it keeps making new lows.  I feel the best case is we're just going to hover in a range for a few months for both metals.

Silver 10 year graph

Here is the support line for Silver from 2008.  We're now at a crucial juncture.

Current Silver spot price is $26.97.  If this support line breaks, we're coming back possibly to the support line at $20 odd dollars which served as resistance previously in 2008.  Silver has to break solidly first above $29, the 50 day MA, then above $31.78, the 200 day moving average to draw people back in.  Until then it could either be a quick breakdown or a few months of range bound action.

Days like these...

I just got home and looking at the silver and gold charts make me bloody gloomy.  These are trying times indeed.  Patience is the key to everything.  The bull will always try to throw you off its back.  Just an example, during Gold's last bull market from 1971 to 1980, Gold rose 600% only to fall 50%.  That's enough to scare the heck out of anyone into buying gold.  That the bubble had popped, that it was the end of the golden bull.  Instead, Gold rose 850% percent after the 50% fall.  This brings me back to 2008 when Silver fell from $21 to as low as $8.  And Gold fell from $1000 to $750 even though it was brief.  It takes guts, conviction, and belief to go through these times.  I bought Silver all the way from ranges between $21 and $45.  Nothing has changed in the world to make me sell gold or silver.  In fact the financial system has become even more unstable.  Take advantage of the low prices and purchase gold and silver.  That's the takeaway message.

Gold looks like it is diverging from the market, perhaps it's the beginning of a big move.

Silver, the quadruple bottom

Silver currently at 28.32 USD has formed a quadruple bottom.

This base at approximately 26 should hold.  If that breaks then it'll be 22.91 is strong support.  June and July are traditionally crash months for gold and silver.  And summer is supposed to be strong months.  However last year we had very strong run ins for gold and silver before the summer period, followed by weak performance in the summer months.  However we're not in normal times.  JP Morgan announced a 2 billion dollar loss in derivatives, as reported.  In reality it's more like 18 billion.  That is huge.  To understand how crazy that is, the top 10 US banks in the world hold 200 trillion dollars in derivatives.  The World GDP stands at only 70 trillion!!  There's a lot more derivatives in the world than real assets.  For me I hold both hard assets and speculative positions.  I believe Silver is the easiest way by far for anyone to get wealthy during this time period, if they know how to play the game.  I've added more 40 Strikes for December 2012 with an expectation that Silver will hit at least 60 before that time period.  I fully expect QE 3 to be announced in June, or some form of it.

Silver

I look at the graph of Silver now and it doesn't look pretty.  It's close to the December lows, and looks like it's going to head that way.  If that breaks, there's strong support at 22.86, bringing us back all the way to October 2010.  I strongly doubt that would happen though, unless severe deflation breaks loose.  If that's the case, be prepared to see the biggest QE ever.  My buying area would be around the $20-$28 level.  It's a large range, so it's probably best to scale in.  Goes the same with options.  I'm targeting Dec 2012 and March 2013 strikes $40 strikes, further out if need be.  I have a gut feeling when Silver moves again, instead of seeing the downward smashes that took place in May and Sept last year, we're going to see large rallies, and I mean like 10% movements in a day.

Gold standard definition

According to Harry Schultz.

There is no morality in fiat paper.  None, zero, nada.  No honesty, No trust, it's all built on lies.  I don't know how can people stand for this.  The entire financial system is a bloody scam.  Commerce is the lifeblood of any economy, yet no one is taught in school how money has come about, yet children are made to learn things that may never be of use to them, ever.  Amazing.

Today's spot Silver $30.63, down 26.48% from a year ago.  Today's spot Gold 1654.10, up 7.02% from a year ago.

Last year I said Silver will be $60 by June, looks like that's going to be by the end of December.  Gold, conservatively we're looking at $2000 to $2500.  However, if the US dollar collapses by the end of this year, which certain Elite have said it would, then higher prices will be expected.  I am positive we're now reaching a parabolic stage when everyone around the world will rush into the precious metals.  However, I don't expect Gold to hit $5000 or $10000 because a new currency will probably be introduced before that should happen.

Shown below, 15 year graphs of both metals.

Silver Bottoming

It's the upcoming easter weekend and what a prelude, Spot Silver is currently down 4.47% to 31.22  It will spend the next few months forming a bottom.  Meanwhile I've repositioned myself for the rally that's coming probably within the next few months.  Two weeks ago I sold out on almost every silver position I had but today with Silver falling it's just an irresistible time for me to get back in.  I'm now out of the money positioned for $60 strikes in December 2012 with the risk reward ratio pretty insane considering what's about to unfold.  I don't know the exact bottom but I'm not going to cry over a few thousand dollars which is my downside should Silver fall to $30 support or below which I highly doubt so may happen.  These are life changing opportunities and there's no way I'm going to let this pass me by.  The longer the continued consolidation, the greater the expected rally that will unfold.

I got handed a huge lesson

Okay looks like the $60 June target for Silver isn't happening, I've closed out my Silver July positions for a 95% loss.  A huge hit on my portfolio.  Silver is currently at $32.15.  It's probably going to fall all the way to $30 and maybe even the Jan low of $27.  In hindsight I should have closed my positions when silver got the other smackdown in December but these are abnormal times.  It is worth taking a shot in these times because these events can change your life.  I'll probably re-enter if Silver really does go to $27 but for now I've closed out all my Silver positions.  Silver has been consolidating for 11 months now since the May smackdown after a 9 month rally from Sept 2010 to May 2011.  There's no way that Silver will even be $50 by June, if it did that would be a 56% rise in 3 months!  But we'll see.  Perhaps Silver will still reach $50 by years' end.  56% rise in 9 months that's doable.  But who knows?  The metals are manipulated so it's really hard to tell how the price will move.  Silver reached $37 end February and looked like it was going to head to $40 according to Tech Analysis.  And right now, well... :)  that's why for a simple person it's just easier to stay long and buy on dips.

Keep the faith.

Happy New Year

Well it's another new year!  Financially last year was a good year, it could've been a great year but silver ended the year less than it begun and I was heavily leaning towards silver in my investing, and options can make or break you.  I had endured some real rollercoaster rides with my portofolio which ended up with a 50% gain overall.  That's in contrast to silver being down several percent, gold up 11% in terms of US dollars, and the stock market going nowhere.  So that's really really good progress, even though I was up in the triple digits for the majority of the year but that's just something I have to live with. :)  I also visited many countries this year, did the most amount of travelling I have ever have and lived in a different country.  I've still been slack with software development.  Might think of something else to do before this year is over, but... who knows.

Positives
- Year ended even better than the last.
- Travelled a hell lot.
- Learned a hell lot trading and managing a portfolio.  Maybe I could run a hedge fund in the future.
- Grew a hell lot personally.

Negatives
- Didn't save as much as I could, but the good thing is for everything that I purchased I could do so because I could afford to do so.
- Social life is still kind of dead in the water.
- I still need something to truly inspire me.
- Lost the girl in Australia, that sucked but someone else will love me for who I am.
- Economy is still shit house, how long will this mirage go on for?

This year could be a make or break year for many people financially.  Which side are you going to be on?  If you trust your government then keep with the fiat currency.  If you stand for personal freedom then stick with Go(l)d and Silver.  For me well I already know the game, its the end of paper.  It is amazing what people don't know, and what people are not interested in even though it affects them a great and a huge deal.  Unfortunately when the USD collapses, it will be overnight, these things have always happened overnight, and by then it will already be too late for many.  The matter of fact is, if you are not in your 80s, you truly have never experienced bad times, and for many this year if not next will be a very, very hard time for many.  It's time to take charge of your own finances and your life and stop listening to lying politicians and war mongering governments.

Every single currency lost to gold this year, an average of 14.3%.  Here's my "favourite" currencies.

Gold AUD Jan 1 2011 - 1389
Gold AUD Dec 31 2011 - 1531
Return - 10%

Gold SGD Jan 1 2011 - 1826
Gold SGD Dec 31 2011 - 2027
Return - 11%

Gold NOK Jan 1 2011 - 8273
Gold NOK Dec 31 2011 - 9345
Return - 13%

Gold EUR Jan 1 2011 - 1062
Gold EUR Dec 31 2011 - 1206
Return - 13.6%

Bring on 2012!