Happy New Year

Well it's another new year!  Financially last year was a good year, it could've been a great year but silver ended the year less than it begun and I was heavily leaning towards silver in my investing, and options can make or break you.  I had endured some real rollercoaster rides with my portofolio which ended up with a 50% gain overall.  That's in contrast to silver being down several percent, gold up 11% in terms of US dollars, and the stock market going nowhere.  So that's really really good progress, even though I was up in the triple digits for the majority of the year but that's just something I have to live with. :)  I also visited many countries this year, did the most amount of travelling I have ever have and lived in a different country.  I've still been slack with software development.  Might think of something else to do before this year is over, but... who knows.

Positives
- Year ended even better than the last.
- Travelled a hell lot.
- Learned a hell lot trading and managing a portfolio.  Maybe I could run a hedge fund in the future.
- Grew a hell lot personally.

Negatives
- Didn't save as much as I could, but the good thing is for everything that I purchased I could do so because I could afford to do so.
- Social life is still kind of dead in the water.
- I still need something to truly inspire me.
- Lost the girl in Australia, that sucked but someone else will love me for who I am.
- Economy is still shit house, how long will this mirage go on for?

This year could be a make or break year for many people financially.  Which side are you going to be on?  If you trust your government then keep with the fiat currency.  If you stand for personal freedom then stick with Go(l)d and Silver.  For me well I already know the game, its the end of paper.  It is amazing what people don't know, and what people are not interested in even though it affects them a great and a huge deal.  Unfortunately when the USD collapses, it will be overnight, these things have always happened overnight, and by then it will already be too late for many.  The matter of fact is, if you are not in your 80s, you truly have never experienced bad times, and for many this year if not next will be a very, very hard time for many.  It's time to take charge of your own finances and your life and stop listening to lying politicians and war mongering governments.

Every single currency lost to gold this year, an average of 14.3%.  Here's my "favourite" currencies.

Gold AUD Jan 1 2011 - 1389
Gold AUD Dec 31 2011 - 1531
Return - 10%

Gold SGD Jan 1 2011 - 1826
Gold SGD Dec 31 2011 - 2027
Return - 11%

Gold NOK Jan 1 2011 - 8273
Gold NOK Dec 31 2011 - 9345
Return - 13%

Gold EUR Jan 1 2011 - 1062
Gold EUR Dec 31 2011 - 1206
Return - 13.6%

Bring on 2012!

PMs in perspective

Silver is currently at 31.60.  I've loaded up on more Silver positions and closed out my Oil positions.

To put things into perspective, let's have a look at the Silver weekly chart.

From Dec 08 to May 09, Silver has been below the 50 week MA (Moving Average).  Ever since that time it has always been above the 50 week MA.  That represents a more than 2 year run above that level!  Now that Silver is back below this level it will probably run higher when it gets above this level.  Make no mistake, this is a great buying opportunity.


Let's look at Gold.

Gold's graph looks incredible.  It hasn't had a pause since Feb 09!  Again the blue line represents the 50 week MA.

The trend is still up and both represent great buying opportunities.  Although I have to say, Silver represents a better opportunity.

PM Carnage!

The precious metals have taken a smashing so right now my portfolio doesn't look healthy.  It has fallen 50% off its peak just a week ago since I'm very levered towards Silver.  Silver has fallen 25% since Wednesday and Friday's 17% decline represents the biggest one day fall since 1984.  We're not living in normal times.  I have since closed out some SLW Jan positions and moved towards longer term Silver positions.  With SLW that's going to take significant time before the chart is repaired and right now that's not going to happen so I will probably close out the remaining SLW positions sometime next week and move those towards July Future Calls, which look really cheap now.  Because technical analysis is worthless when it comes to manipulation, what you want to buy when chasing options is time.

My Silver target is still $60 (or higher) by June 2012.  The bet of my life.  Buckle up Dorothy for the ride of your life.

Gold.ax the breakout is on

Gold.ax (a proxy for Gold in Australian dollars) has finally broken out of its several year consolidation phase (3 years!!).  Another record in another fiat currency.

From this point onwards till next year, expect Gold to rally strongly.  This period is traditionally gold's strongest.  My target is still around the 1870 level.  That represents another 200+ rise.

To the "smart crowd" who chose the "strong"Australian dollar, you've just lost even more of your purchasing power.  Amazing how people only chose to buy gold now when it's risen so much when they could've gotten it much cheaper even just earlier this year.

September 11 10 years on...

Today's the 10 year anniversary of September 11.  10 years on what has changed?  Loss of freedom, more wars ("democracy"), more deaths in the name of "freedom".  And the US is fast going down a slippery slope into bankruptcy oblivion spending money it doesn't have while China grows its US reserves now in the trillions.  In the current debasing competition, the most notable safe haven currency, the Swiss Franc devalued 8.5% in a week against the golden bull.  That is a crash.


Model portfolio value


SLW Jan12 30 Call @ 8.67, 6 contracts - Currently $11.25 (29.7% Gain)
CLM2 140 C @ 0.96, 5 contracts - Currently $1 (4.1% Gain)

Current Model Portfolio Value $11,750



I'm still targeting oil at $100 by years' end.  If not, close to $100.  SLW still targeting $60 early next year.

Introducting the model portfolio!

The idea.. turn $1 into $2 or more!

Let's create a model portfolio of $10,000.  Our target profit level is 100%.  So by the end of this year, we want the portfolio to be valued at $20,000 or higher.  At least that is the idea.  Can I do it?  Why not?

This portfolio will be modelled based on my own portfolio.  I hold other stocks but I'm just going to stick with the two most recent ones that I've picked along with the price I bought them.  I purchased these because I believe these are represent low risk and high reward.  Prices exclude trading fees.

SLW Jan12 30 Call (Stock Option) - Average at $8.67
Buy 6 contracts - Total $5202
Rationale 
Silver wheaton is a great stock and underperforming silver right now.  They purchase silver from mining companies for $4 and sell it at spot price.  It's a great business model.  The rationale for buying an in the money call is less risk that the contract will expire out of the money.  I believe Silver will hit new highs by the end of this year and this should put a boost under SLW to above $50 by years' end.  If that happens, each contract will be worth $20 or more.

CLM2 140 C (Futures Option) - Average at $0.96
Buy 5 contracts - Total $4798
Rationale
Oil has collapsed back to Dec 2010 levels.  Meanwhile the dollar is getting devalued faster than waste coming out of a person suffering from severe diarrhoea.  This is not sustainable.  I believe oil will rise back to within $100 by end of this year.  The rationale for buying a longer out of the money contract is so that there is enough time for this play to work out.

Currently the above positions are

SLW Jan12 30 Call - Currently $12 (38% Gain)
CLM2 140 C - Currently $0.97 (1.36% Gain)


Current Model Portfolio Value $12,050


Will update as and when we move along!

Graphs of metals versus other paper currencies

1 year graph of CHF (Swiss Franc), SGD (Singapore Dollar), NOK (Norwegian Krone), AUD (Australian Dollar), GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver) against the USD (US Dollar).

The top performers are

1. Silver (134%)
2. Gold (51%)
3. Swiss Franc (33%)
4. Australian Dollar (16%)
5. Norwegian Krone (13%)
6. Singapore Dollar (12%)

5 year graph of CHF (Swiss Franc), SGD (Singapore Dollar), NOK (Norwegian Krone), AUD (Australian Dollar), GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver) against the USD (US Dollar).

The top performers are

1. Silver (245%)
2. Gold (194%)
3. Swiss Franc (56%)
4. Australian Dollar (36%)
5. Singapore Dollar (30%)
6. Norwegian Krone (15%)

8 year graph of CHF (Swiss Franc), SGD (Singapore Dollar), NOK (Norwegian Krone), AUD (Australian Dollar), GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver) against the USD (US Dollar).

The top performers are

1. Gold (301%)
2. Silver (201%)
3. Swiss Franc (75%)
4. Australian Dollar (57%)
5. Singapore Dollar (40%)
6. Norwegian Krone (34%)

Conclusion?  Your best bet is still Gold and Silver against paper currencies, saying their performance is astounding is plain for all to see.  Paper currencies will continue their long term devaluation.  Interest gained in a paper account will not be enough to account for the decline of purchasing power.