Christmas review

I'm in Singapore as I write this using my old keyboard, typing on my old computer table. It's been with me for 11 years. Time really flies. I've typed a lot on this keyboard, including school assignments as well as working product code that I'm selling till this day. So welcome to my almost end of year review.

This year has been a dreadful year in terms of the world economy. Personally I've made some horrible dreadful mistakes this year on investments and have lost a lot of money. Enough to live several years on. It's been a series of expensive mistakes, which I hope I'll learn from. I'm pissed off at myself for losing that amount of money, but I know I'll get over it and make it all back someday. As someone said before, it's okay to make mistakes as long as you don't repeat them. The bright side is that my business has grown again this year. Frankly I find that unbelievable in this economic climate, but well, that's the truth. Business was bloody fantastic the first 6 months, and fell off after that but I still managed to end with double digit growth. And I didn't really touch on my business this year, it's pretty much handled itself automatically. I think that's pretty damn awesome and I must be doing something right. I think one of my downsides is that I don't really count on money being such an important thing in my life, I'd rather help others in the biggest possible way that I can, in the shortest possible amount of time and then being rewarded for that. So if I lose money, I don't feel as much pain, but I know how painful it can be if you're poor and broke, that's why you always need to save for a rainy day. Saying that, I do keep a spreadsheet of my net worth so I know where I stand. I think it's important to know where you stand.

This year is also the first year where I've made in the region of 6 digits in a single year. That's a monumental achievement for me, considering my age. I've done it through getting a "real job" with a "real company" and also previously working on my own software company, not by focusing on how much money I can make but how much value I can deliver to the end user. I'm above my peers in the financial stakes, but I don't compete with them, I only compete with myself. Many of my peers have no idea how much money I really make. Well that's fine, I don't want to be robbed nor do I want them to be envious.

Next year's predictions

These are my predictions for next year. It's not looking rosy at all and it's going to get worse. I'm not a pessimissit, but I am a realist.

• The Greater Depression will arrive in the USA, so probably a 50% fall in my business would be very likely, if not worse. If that happens, there's nothing I can do, I'll just do what I always do, create software to solve peoples' problems. Unemployment in the US will be worse than the Great Depression, the figures just keep getting worse and worse.
• The housing bubble will get much worse. Option ARMs will reset and many more people will lose their homes.
  
• There's going to be a huge world restructure. The US dollar will collapse and go into hyperinflation. This will happen sometime in August - September.
• The Dow Jones will collapse to the price of 1 ounce of gold. I think the US dollar will collapse first, which means the Dow Jones will be something in the region of 40,000 points, random guess, a large number, but mostly rendered useless because of the worthlessness of the dollar. The stock markets in other countries will fall as well, however they will recover as soon as people realise that they do not need to USA as part of the world economy. I don't know when will this happen. The US will most likely not recover for decades. Stocks are still a no buy in my opinion.
  
• Gold will reach at least $2000 sometime next year, possibly even higher, due to economic uncertainty and endless printing of money. If the Dow reaches 40K, Gold will reach 40K. People will lose faith in currencies.
• Commodities will get substantially more expensive after the deflation period is over. Standards of living will drop, people will be able buy less with their paper money. More countries will go into recession due to rising commodity prices. People will spend less money and save more.
• Lindsey Williams said that the Arab countries will dump the dollar. I don't know if this will happen, but he did say oil will go to $50 a barrel in July and it did happen in November this year. The problem with this is not only will it render the US worthless, but China and Japan, the world's largest holders of US bonds, will lose a huge amount of money as well. I am unsure of the repercussions of this. Australia's hugely dependent on the progress of China.
  

That's all for now. What I can see right now is a huge transfer of wealth to the Asian countries. I don't know how it's going to end, but what I know is that in 20 years, the world's landscape will be very very different.

With that, I'm going to end with...

Merry Christmas to all!